THE TECH DILEMMA

Major Indexes

Index	1-Month Change
S&P 500	+4.15%
Nasdaq	+5.97%
Russell 2000	+5.37%
Dow Jones Industrial	+3.28%

ECONOMY HEALTH

2025 has been a wild year regarding tariffs and spending bills which have dampened many estimates regarding U.S labor market, costs, and GDP growth. Many executives threw the R-word around at the beginning of April after liberation day. Over the course of the last 5 months, we have seen a very resilient US economy. Corporate earnings especially coming from the Tech sector have given a strong support as retail and institutional investors alike dive into the AI trade. Consumer spending has also remained steady as inflation has hit less than expected. Because of this, 2 more rate cuts at a quarter basis points each are expected by year-end.

OPENAI-ORACLE DEAL

Oracle has struck a deal with OpenAI which would commit 300 billion

to a new data centers that would be paid out 60 million a year to

Oracle in exchange for their computing power. This deal signified the

extent at which Capex has grown beyond using free cash flows ans

instead taking on debt in exchange for future advancements. After the

announcement, Oracles stock shot up 30 percent displaying strong

investor confidence in the future of AI even if that means taking on

loads of debt.

CAPEX SPENDING

In the past year, the demand for cloud computing and AI products has

been incredibly high. Additionally, capex has also risen as companies

compete for market share of the AI trade. Many of these companies

including OpenAI, Meta, Alphabet, Nvidia and Oracle have decided that

it is better to take on debt jumping into the Tech Trade than to be left

out of it. Mark Zuckerberg said in the “Access” Podcast, “If we end up

misspending a couple of hundred billion dollars, I think that that is

going to be very unfortunate, obviously. But what I’d say is I actually

think the risk is higher on the other side.”

Inflation Readings in line with the fed’s estimates at 2.9%. Additionally personal income beat expectations slightly rising 0.4 month over month compared to the expected 0.3%. According to Raymond James weekly report, “wage growth continues to outpace inflation, providing rising discretionary income to support consumption.” General consensus appears to be that economic data is not nearly as bad as it was expected to be at the beginning of the Summer in regard to tariffs. Stagflation fears seem to have

cooled as new economic data continues to come in.

Government Shutdown

A government shutdown began on Wednesday October 1st. This means that non essential federal employees are sent home without pay. Essential federal employees (TSA, Military, Etc) are working without pay. Additionally, there will be delays in federal functions like getting a passport or waiting in line at the airport. Data releases will be delayed as all government agencies have already displayed warnings stating that the government is shutdown and the websites are not being updated. This leads to more speculation about how long this could last and what direction our economy is headed in without economic data.

The last government shutdown happened in 2018 and lasted 35 days into 2019. It was estimated to have cost the government 11 billion dollars. The shutdown began on December 24th. The stock market underwent a minor correction leading up to the shutdown with the worst day being on the day of the shutdown. The Dow fell 15.6 percent from its month high to the first day of the shutdown. Many media sources called it a bear market.

Will That Happen Again?

There is really no way to tell. It depends on a number of factors such as the length of the shutdown and the final effects that it will have on government operations. Thus far, people seem calm about the situation as all major indexes hit record highs once again on Friday. It seems as though maybe risk appetite has increased since 2018 as many retail investors have set a stronghold.

September Earnings

• It has been a slow month for earnings as we are no longer in earnings season. However, October is bringing earnings season back in full swing.

Company	Expected EPS	Actual EPS	Date
Salesforce	2.12	2.27	September 3rd
Broadcom	1.35	1.26	September 3rd
Oracle	1.15	1.20	September 9th
Chewy	0.14	0.14	September 10th
Adobe	4.21	4.49	September 11th
FedEx	3.63	3.83	September 18th
Micron	2.67	2.86	September 23rd
Costco	5.81	5.87	September 25th
Nike	0.27	0.49	September 30th

OCTOBER EARNINGS

Company	Expected EPS	Date
PepsiCo	2.27	October 9th
Delta Airlines	1.60	October 9th
JPMorgan	4.79	October 14th
Johnson & Johnson	2.78	October 14th
Wells Fargo	1.54	October 14th
Goldman Sachs	10.58	October 14th
BlackRock	11.83	October 14th
Citi	1.90	October 14th
Netflix	6.88	October 21st
Microsoft	3.65	October 29th
Meta	6.74	October 29th
Apple	1.74	October 30th
Amazon	1.57	October 30th

Outperforming Sector By Chad Doto

For the month of September, the technology sector saw strong growth and reliability in the market.  It goes without saying that inside the tech sector, companies specifically involved in artificial intelligence are experiencing great performance.  As we watch important tech giants like Apple and Nvidia, we view increased stock prices. Many of the top performers in this sector were companies that support AI. Additionally, a growing demand for cloud computing For the month of September, the technology sector saw strong growth and reliability in the market. It goes without saying that inside the tech sector, companies specifically involved in artificial intelligence are experiencing great performance.

As we watch important tech giants like Apple and Nvidia, we view increased stock prices. Many of the top performers in this sector were companies that support AI.

Additionally, a growing demand for cloud computing is a key factor for this sector's long-term growth outlook. According to alpha-sense.com, it states, “Cloud computing in 2025 is on a fast track for record growth and transformation. With AI adoption skyrocketing, hyperscaler competition intensifying, and enterprise IT strategies shifting toward hybrid and multicloud strategies, this year is poised to bring exciting new developments to the space. The global public cloud services market is projected to grow by 21.5% in 2025, reaching $723 billion, with all cloud segments expected to see double-digit growth.” The remainder of 2025 will be a breakthrough year for cloud computing due to AI, fierce competition between tech giants, and more commercial methods. It is anticipated that the industry will experience historic growth, with each segment of the cloud market experiencing strong expansion.

In conclusion, the technology industry had extraordinary growth in September, mostly due to developments in artificial intelligence and the growing need for cloud computing. Investor trust in AI-driven innovation and digital infrastructure is reflected in the continued leadership of major players like Apple and Nvidia. The industry's trajectory indicates continued development and change, with forecasts indicating record-breaking worldwide cloud growth through 2025. All things considered, technology continues to be a key component of market expansion, supported by cloud innovation, artificial intelligence, and the continuous development of digital enterprise.

Global Markets (By Chase Orciuch)

Over the last few years, the US stock markets have seemed to reach record highs every

single week due to the AI boom. Some of the biggest companies in the world like

Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia have benefitted greatly from this rally and have been

moving strong for years. Not to mention that the same rapid growth has been shown in

other major companies like Broadcom, Oracle and Adobe.

Although, it seems that the European markets are starting to reap some of the benefits

that were mainly seen in the US. The Stoxx 600 has been rising to all-time highs

recently, and in the week ending 10/3/2025, the European index has risen an

impressive 2.6%. The Stoxx 600 is lagging behind the S&P 500 (14.4% vs 11.7%), but it

has shown much more than acceptable gains for a given year.

While automotive and healthcare stocks have also made considerable contributions,

European tech stocks have led the way.

The surge was helped by news of Samsung and OpenAI announcing a partnership to

accelerate advancements in global AI data center infrastructure.

Dutch chip makers ASML (Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography) have

shown astounding growth in their stock price over the last month, with over a 40% gain.

Europe has well over $200 Billion committed towards AI infrastructure coming in the

next 5 years. And with the amount of reliance on the use of artificial intelligence

nowadays, that number will only get bigger over time. This investment shows that there

is serious ambition by the EU to compete in a highly competitive semiconductor chip

market.

Outlook

European equities are showing impressive results, with major interest in the technology

sector being the engine for those results. We believe that Europe’s tech sector

(especially within semiconductor firms) will benefit from the continued efforts to improve

AI infrastructure. We also believe that the European equities have a lot more room to

grow, and we could expect a very positive movement for the last few months of 2025

and even into the start of 2026, driven by strong earnings reports should propel the

European tech market, even if that includes a path of increased volatility.

Conclusion

With conflicts happening in the US like the government shutdown, it is important to note

that there are still great options in abroad markets, and with tech rallying in the way that

it has been, its important to realize the companies that can produce stock growth not

only in Europe, but around the world.